Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,672$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(699 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,466.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,466.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $118$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(32.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,088$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,898$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,043.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,043.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,526$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,333.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,333.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $69,372$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,977$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,508.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,508.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $252$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(94.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(240.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $587$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,291$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,160.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,160.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(324.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,147$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,572.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $609$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(209 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{592.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(592.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $260$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,888$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(821 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,816.1}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,816.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.3 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,469$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,682.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(59,682.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,782$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,550.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,550.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,491$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $290,504$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,491.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(280,491.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,883$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,649.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $244,243$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $242,827$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(7.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,266.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,266.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,945$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(9.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,021.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,021.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,303$ on 2020-07-11
